Madar research note / 01
From headline megawatts to delivered compute.
An evidence audit of Saudi and UAE AI-data-center expansion.
The answer
Public evidence does not yet support a deliverable-MW total. Of seven claims, only one explicitly defines IT load; one has construction evidence; none publishes firm connection terms, energization, or operating confirmation by our cutoff.
Evidence rail
Every megawatt has to pass six gates.
A filled square means the public record establishes the evidence. A half-filled square is partial evidence. An empty square means we did not find public evidence by the cutoff—not that the milestone did not occur.
| Project or program | Headline MW | Defined | Site | Build | Power | Energized | Operating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stargate UAEUnited Arab Emirates / Abu Dhabi | 1,000 | Partial public evidence | Partial public evidence | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established |
| Microsoft-G42 UAE data-center expansionUnited Arab Emirates | 200 | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established |
| Khazna QAJ01 AjmanUnited Arab Emirates / Ajman | 100 | Public evidence established | Public evidence established | Public evidence established | Partial public evidence | Not publicly established | Not publicly established |
| DataVolt Oxagon AI factory campusSaudi Arabia / Oxagon, NEOM | 1,500 | Not publicly established | Public evidence established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established |
| HUMAIN-NVIDIA AI factoriesSaudi Arabia | 500 | Partial public evidence | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established |
| HUMAIN-AMD AI compute networkSaudi Arabia and United States | 500 | Partial public evidence | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established |
| Khazna Dammam campusSaudi Arabia / Dammam | 200 | Not publicly established | Public evidence established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established | Not publicly established |
Source-reviewed sample: seven projects or programs announced or materially updated from 2024 through 17 July 2026, each reporting at least 50 MW. The 4,000 MW gross sum is shown only as a diagnostic of the announcement universe.
Finding 01 / The denominator
Four thousand is an ambition measure, not a delivery measure.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have announced AI infrastructure at a scale that would have been difficult to imagine only a few years ago. The public numbers are large. The public proof of delivery is much thinner.
The seven headline values add to 4,000 MW. But the sum mixes IT load, campus scale, AI-factory capacity, AI-compute capacity, and undefined “capacity.” It also includes a 500 MW AMD–HUMAIN network spanning Saudi Arabia and the United States with no country allocation.
Public sources do not resolve whether the HUMAIN–NVIDIA 500 MW program overlaps other HUMAIN partnerships. Project values can also sit inside wider portfolio targets. Adding them creates precision the source record does not contain.
Finding 02 / Attrition
Site and power proof falls away faster than partnership claims.
Four claims give more geography than a country name, but only three pass the project-site threshold: a named facility, a controlled parcel, or a documented land agreement. Stargate UAE identifies Abu Dhabi, but a city is not a project site. The DataVolt–Oxagon agreement provides stronger evidence of a development location and intended land support, but not construction or a grid connection.
Only one project reports a dated construction start. Only one names a utility. None publishes firm connection MW, a connection point, upgrade obligations, an energization record, or operating evidence. For anyone trying to understand how quickly AI load will arrive, this is the decisive public-information gap.
Ajman, UAE
The strongest case also shows the gap
A defined 100 MW IT load. Ground broken. Utility named. Still no public energization record.
Khazna’s October 2024 announcement described twenty 5 MW halls, said ground had been broken, named Etihad Water and Electricity as the primary supplier, described advanced liquid cooling, and targeted operation in the third quarter of 2025.
Uptime Institute’s February 2026 release explicitly identified the 100 MW as total IT load and confirmed Tier III Certification of Design Documents. It also described design certification as the first certification step and discussed outcomes the facility can achieve once constructed.
Together, the sources establish a named facility, defined load, owner-reported construction commencement, a named utility, cooling intent, and independent design review. They do not publicly establish firm connection MW, commercial power terms, energization, constructed-facility certification, or operation by 17 July 2026.
A passed target date is not an operating record.
The cautious conclusion is not that QAJ01 missed its target or was not operating. We found no public evidence capable of confirming either proposition.
Disclosure gap / Saudi Arabia
The regulator collects more than the market can see.
Saudi data-center regulations require applicants to submit exact address and coordinates, land and white-space area, total facility power, total IT load, rack count, ownership, provider, and tier information.
MADAR extracted all 69 entries visible in the public CST register as of 16 July 2026. The interface exposes provider, facility name, and classification—but not most of the site and load fields the regulator collects.
This is a disclosure gap, not a collection failure. A non-confidential export of site, IT load, facility load, development status, and verification date would materially improve market transparency.
Conclusion
Ask which megawatts have a documented route to power.
The practical diligence question should change from “How many gigawatts have been announced?” to “Which megawatts have a defined electrical measure, a controlled site, a dated build milestone, and a documented route to power?”
This audit supports a narrow conclusion: the announcement universe is large, but public evidence cannot yet convert it into delivered compute. It does not establish that any project is cancelled, delayed, unfunded, or unable to secure power. It does not estimate private connection progress.
Developers and public agencies can close much of the gap without exposing every commercial detail. Phase-level IT load, facility load and firm connection MW; site control; current milestone; utility and connection status; reinforcement dependencies; and dated energization and operation updates would make the market materially more legible.
Project ledger
Claims, milestones, and primary sources.
01Stargate UAE1,000 MW
- Highest supported status
- announced
- Latest milestone
- 2025-05-22 / Project-owner announcement names partners and a 1 GW cluster; initial 200 MW was expected in 2026.
- Target
- 2026
- Overlap / allocation risk
- Initial 200 MW is part of the 1 GW cluster and must not be added separately; possible overlap with Khazna portfolio targets is not disclosed.
The 1 GW is a cluster claim, not public evidence of connected or commissioned IT load.
02Microsoft-G42 UAE data-center expansion200 MW
- Highest supported status
- announced
- Latest milestone
- 2025-11 / Partners announced 200 MW of capacity to be delivered through Khazna.
- Target
- 2026
- Overlap / allocation risk
- No site allocation is disclosed; potential overlap with Khazna's broader UAE pipeline cannot be removed from public data.
The source calls the figure data-center capacity but does not define IT, facility, or connection load.
03Khazna QAJ01 Ajman100 MW
- Highest supported status
- under construction
- Latest milestone
- 2026-02-24 / Uptime Institute Tier III Certification of Design Documents after owner-reported ground-breaking.
- Target
- 2025-Q3
- Overlap / allocation risk
- Facility may be included in Khazna portfolio totals; it is kept separate and portfolio targets are not summed.
This is the sample's only claim explicitly defined as total IT load and the only one with both construction evidence and a named utility, but no public connection MW or operating confirmation was found.
04DataVolt Oxagon AI factory campus1,500 MW
- Highest supported status
- site identified
- Latest milestone
- 2025-02-10 / Agreement signed; Oxagon is to lease land and provide infrastructure support.
- Target
- 2028
- Overlap / allocation risk
- The 1.5 GW is a campus-scale figure; the source does not disclose phase-one MW or distinguish IT load from facility or connection capacity.
A signed site-counterparty agreement is stronger than a country-level aspiration, but it is not a grid connection or construction milestone.
05HUMAIN-NVIDIA AI factories500 MW
- Highest supported status
- announced
- Latest milestone
- 2025-05-13 / Technology partners announced up to 500 MW over five years and an 18,000-GPU first phase.
- Target
- 2030
- Overlap / allocation risk
- Public sources do not say whether this program overlaps HUMAIN's AMD, AWS, or later partner announcements.
A chip commitment is not a facility, power allocation, or energization record.
06HUMAIN-AMD AI compute network500 MW
- Highest supported status
- announced
- Latest milestone
- 2025-05-13 / Partners announced up to 500 MW across a network extending from Saudi Arabia to the United States.
- Target
- 2030
- Overlap / allocation risk
- No country allocation is disclosed and overlap with other HUMAIN programs cannot be excluded; the 500 MW cannot be assigned to Saudi Arabia.
Included to show why partnership announcements cannot be summed into a national Saudi pipeline.
07Khazna Dammam campus200 MW
- Highest supported status
- site identified
- Latest milestone
- 2025-12-09 / Owner reported acquisition of 225,000 square metres of land for a Dammam site.
- Target
- No public service date
- Overlap / allocation risk
- The project is part of Khazna's multi-country expansion and must not be added to the portfolio target; capacity measure is undefined.
Land control is a real milestone, but no construction, utility, connection, or energization evidence is public.
Method note
The sample includes named Saudi or UAE projects and partner programs announced or materially updated from 2024 through 17 July 2026 that report at least 50 MW. The multi-country HUMAIN–AMD claim is retained because its unallocated geography demonstrates why partnership announcements cannot be summed into a national pipeline. National targets and portfolio totals are context, not project observations.
Sources are prioritized in this order: project owners and counterparties; regulators and utilities; audited or official reports; and independent certification records. Press coverage is used for discovery, not as the final evidentiary basis. No restricted data is included.