{
  "publication": {
    "title": "From headline megawatts to delivered compute",
    "subtitle": "An evidence audit of Saudi and UAE AI-data-center expansion",
    "cutoffDate": "2026-07-17",
    "methodVersion": "1.0"
  },
  "summary": {
    "cutoff_date": "2026-07-17",
    "project_claims": 7,
    "gross_headline_mw_not_a_market_total": 4000.0,
    "explicit_it_load_projects": 1,
    "explicit_it_load_mw": 100.0,
    "projects_with_better_than_country_level_site_evidence": 4,
    "projects_meeting_publication_site_gate": 3,
    "projects_with_construction_evidence": 1,
    "projects_with_named_utility_or_power_counterparty": 1,
    "projects_with_public_connection_terms": 0,
    "projects_with_public_energization_evidence": 0,
    "projects_with_public_operating_evidence": 0,
    "projects_meeting_all_delivery_gates": 0,
    "warnings": [
      "The gross headline sum includes a 500 MW Saudi-US program that cannot be allocated by country.",
      "Public sources do not resolve overlap among HUMAIN programs or among Khazna project and portfolio targets.",
      "Most capacity measures are not defined as IT, facility, or grid-connection load.",
      "Blank evidence fields mean not publicly established by the cutoff date, not that the milestone did not occur."
    ]
  },
  "projects": [
    {
      "id": "HPC-0001",
      "name": "Stargate UAE",
      "sponsors": [
        "G42",
        "OpenAI",
        "Oracle",
        "NVIDIA",
        "SoftBank Group",
        "Cisco"
      ],
      "country": "United Arab Emirates",
      "place": "Abu Dhabi",
      "announcementDate": "2025-05-22",
      "headlineMw": 1000.0,
      "capacityDefinition": "campus_or_cluster_mw",
      "geographyAllocation": "allocated_to_uae_cluster",
      "status": "announced",
      "latestMilestoneDate": "2025-05-22",
      "latestMilestone": "Project-owner announcement names partners and a 1 GW cluster; initial 200 MW was expected in 2026.",
      "targetServiceDate": "2026",
      "targetStatus": "target_window_open_no_public_operating_evidence",
      "evidence": {
        "capacity": "partial",
        "site": "partial",
        "construction": "not_public",
        "power": "not_public",
        "energization": "not_public",
        "operation": "not_public"
      },
      "siteEvidence": "city_named",
      "siteControlEvidence": "",
      "constructionEvidence": "",
      "powerEvidence": "",
      "coolingEvidence": "",
      "overlapRisk": "Initial 200 MW is part of the 1 GW cluster and must not be added separately; possible overlap with Khazna portfolio targets is not disclosed.",
      "publicationNote": "The 1 GW is a cluster claim, not public evidence of connected or commissioned IT load.",
      "sourceLocator": "OpenAI announcement bullets; Khazna portfolio announcement identifies itself as infrastructure delivery partner.",
      "primarySource": {
        "sourceId": "SRC-0003",
        "title": "Introducing Stargate UAE",
        "publisher": "OpenAI",
        "url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-stargate-uae/"
      },
      "supportingSources": [
        {
          "sourceId": "SRC-0045",
          "title": "Khazna to Add Over 1 GW Hyperscale Capacity Across Multiple Countries by 2030",
          "publisher": "Khazna Data Centers",
          "url": "https://khaznadatacenters.com/press-release/khazna-data-centers-to-add-over-1gw-hyperscale-capacity-across-multiple-countries-by-2030/"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "HPC-0002",
      "name": "Microsoft-G42 UAE data-center expansion",
      "sponsors": [
        "Microsoft",
        "G42",
        "Khazna Data Centers"
      ],
      "country": "United Arab Emirates",
      "place": "",
      "announcementDate": "2025-11",
      "headlineMw": 200.0,
      "capacityDefinition": "unspecified_power_mw",
      "geographyAllocation": "allocated_to_uae_multiple_undisclosed_sites",
      "status": "announced",
      "latestMilestoneDate": "2025-11",
      "latestMilestone": "Partners announced 200 MW of capacity to be delivered through Khazna.",
      "targetServiceDate": "2026",
      "targetStatus": "target_window_open_no_public_operating_evidence",
      "evidence": {
        "capacity": "not_public",
        "site": "not_public",
        "construction": "not_public",
        "power": "not_public",
        "energization": "not_public",
        "operation": "not_public"
      },
      "siteEvidence": "country_only",
      "siteControlEvidence": "",
      "constructionEvidence": "",
      "powerEvidence": "",
      "coolingEvidence": "",
      "overlapRisk": "No site allocation is disclosed; potential overlap with Khazna's broader UAE pipeline cannot be removed from public data.",
      "publicationNote": "The source calls the figure data-center capacity but does not define IT, facility, or connection load.",
      "sourceLocator": "Opening description and delivery-timing paragraph.",
      "primarySource": {
        "sourceId": "SRC-0006",
        "title": "Microsoft and G42 Accelerate UAE's Digital Future with Major Data Centre Expansion",
        "publisher": "Microsoft and G42",
        "url": "https://news.microsoft.com/source/emea/2025/11/microsoft-and-g42-accelerate-uaes-digital-future-with-major-data-centre-expansion/"
      },
      "supportingSources": []
    },
    {
      "id": "HPC-0003",
      "name": "Khazna QAJ01 Ajman",
      "sponsors": [
        "Khazna Data Centers",
        "Etihad Water and Electricity"
      ],
      "country": "United Arab Emirates",
      "place": "Ajman",
      "announcementDate": "2024-10-15",
      "headlineMw": 100.0,
      "capacityDefinition": "it_load_mw",
      "geographyAllocation": "allocated_to_named_facility",
      "status": "under_construction",
      "latestMilestoneDate": "2026-02-24",
      "latestMilestone": "Uptime Institute Tier III Certification of Design Documents after owner-reported ground-breaking.",
      "targetServiceDate": "2025-Q3",
      "targetStatus": "target_passed_without_public_operating_confirmation",
      "evidence": {
        "capacity": "established",
        "site": "established",
        "construction": "established",
        "power": "partial",
        "energization": "not_public",
        "operation": "not_public"
      },
      "siteEvidence": "facility_and_city_named",
      "siteControlEvidence": "",
      "constructionEvidence": "owner_reported_broken_ground",
      "powerEvidence": "utility_named_no_connection_terms",
      "coolingEvidence": "advanced_liquid_cooling",
      "overlapRisk": "Facility may be included in Khazna portfolio totals; it is kept separate and portfolio targets are not summed.",
      "publicationNote": "This is the sample's only claim explicitly defined as total IT load and the only one with both construction evidence and a named utility, but no public connection MW or operating confirmation was found.",
      "sourceLocator": "Khazna announcement paragraphs 1-5; Uptime Institute project highlights and certification explanation.",
      "primarySource": {
        "sourceId": "SRC-0037",
        "title": "Khazna Announces the UAE's First AI-Optimized Data Center",
        "publisher": "Khazna Data Centers",
        "url": "https://khaznadatacenters.com/press-release/khazna-announces-the-uaes-first-ai-optimized-data-center-and-the-largest-in-its-portfolio-powering-the-nations-drive-toward-ai-leadership/"
      },
      "supportingSources": [
        {
          "sourceId": "SRC-0038",
          "title": "Khazna Awarded Uptime Tier III Certification of Design Documents for Ajman Facility",
          "publisher": "Uptime Institute",
          "url": "https://uptimeinstitute.com/about-ui/press-releases/khazna-awarded-uptime-tier-iii-certification-of-design-documents-for-ajman-uae-facility"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "HPC-0004",
      "name": "DataVolt Oxagon AI factory campus",
      "sponsors": [
        "DataVolt",
        "NEOM Oxagon"
      ],
      "country": "Saudi Arabia",
      "place": "Oxagon, NEOM",
      "announcementDate": "2025-02-10",
      "headlineMw": 1500.0,
      "capacityDefinition": "unspecified_power_mw",
      "geographyAllocation": "allocated_to_named_development_not_phase_one",
      "status": "site_identified",
      "latestMilestoneDate": "2025-02-10",
      "latestMilestone": "Agreement signed; Oxagon is to lease land and provide infrastructure support.",
      "targetServiceDate": "2028",
      "targetStatus": "future_target",
      "evidence": {
        "capacity": "not_public",
        "site": "established",
        "construction": "not_public",
        "power": "not_public",
        "energization": "not_public",
        "operation": "not_public"
      },
      "siteEvidence": "named_development",
      "siteControlEvidence": "agreement_to_lease_land",
      "constructionEvidence": "",
      "powerEvidence": "",
      "coolingEvidence": "",
      "overlapRisk": "The 1.5 GW is a campus-scale figure; the source does not disclose phase-one MW or distinguish IT load from facility or connection capacity.",
      "publicationNote": "A signed site-counterparty agreement is stronger than a country-level aspiration, but it is not a grid connection or construction milestone.",
      "sourceLocator": "Announcement bullets and paragraphs describing phase one, 1.5 GW, land lease, and infrastructure support.",
      "primarySource": {
        "sourceId": "SRC-0041",
        "title": "DataVolt and NEOM to Develop Region's First Net-Zero AI Factory",
        "publisher": "NEOM",
        "url": "https://www.neom.com/en-us/newsroom/datavolt-signs-agreement-with-neom"
      },
      "supportingSources": []
    },
    {
      "id": "HPC-0005",
      "name": "HUMAIN-NVIDIA AI factories",
      "sponsors": [
        "HUMAIN",
        "NVIDIA"
      ],
      "country": "Saudi Arabia",
      "place": "",
      "announcementDate": "2025-05-13",
      "headlineMw": 500.0,
      "capacityDefinition": "source_defined_ai_factory_capacity_mw",
      "geographyAllocation": "allocated_to_saudi_program_no_facility_breakdown",
      "status": "announced",
      "latestMilestoneDate": "2025-05-13",
      "latestMilestone": "Technology partners announced up to 500 MW over five years and an 18,000-GPU first phase.",
      "targetServiceDate": "2030",
      "targetStatus": "future_program_target",
      "evidence": {
        "capacity": "partial",
        "site": "not_public",
        "construction": "not_public",
        "power": "not_public",
        "energization": "not_public",
        "operation": "not_public"
      },
      "siteEvidence": "country_only",
      "siteControlEvidence": "",
      "constructionEvidence": "",
      "powerEvidence": "",
      "coolingEvidence": "",
      "overlapRisk": "Public sources do not say whether this program overlaps HUMAIN's AMD, AWS, or later partner announcements.",
      "publicationNote": "A chip commitment is not a facility, power allocation, or energization record.",
      "sourceLocator": "NVIDIA press-release first partnership bullet; PIF HUMAIN portfolio description.",
      "primarySource": {
        "sourceId": "SRC-0043",
        "title": "Saudi Arabia and NVIDIA to Build AI Factories",
        "publisher": "NVIDIA",
        "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/saudi-arabia-and-nvidia-to-build-ai-factories-to-power-next-wave-of-intelligence-for-the-age-of-reasoning"
      },
      "supportingSources": [
        {
          "sourceId": "SRC-0004",
          "title": "HUMAIN",
          "publisher": "Public Investment Fund",
          "url": "https://www.pif.gov.sa/en/our-investments/our-portfolio/humain/"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "HPC-0006",
      "name": "HUMAIN-AMD AI compute network",
      "sponsors": [
        "HUMAIN",
        "AMD"
      ],
      "country": "Saudi Arabia and United States",
      "place": "",
      "announcementDate": "2025-05-13",
      "headlineMw": 500.0,
      "capacityDefinition": "source_defined_ai_compute_capacity_mw",
      "geographyAllocation": "not_allocable_between_countries",
      "status": "announced",
      "latestMilestoneDate": "2025-05-13",
      "latestMilestone": "Partners announced up to 500 MW across a network extending from Saudi Arabia to the United States.",
      "targetServiceDate": "2030",
      "targetStatus": "future_program_target",
      "evidence": {
        "capacity": "partial",
        "site": "not_public",
        "construction": "not_public",
        "power": "not_public",
        "energization": "not_public",
        "operation": "not_public"
      },
      "siteEvidence": "multi_country_only",
      "siteControlEvidence": "",
      "constructionEvidence": "",
      "powerEvidence": "",
      "coolingEvidence": "",
      "overlapRisk": "No country allocation is disclosed and overlap with other HUMAIN programs cannot be excluded; the 500 MW cannot be assigned to Saudi Arabia.",
      "publicationNote": "Included to show why partnership announcements cannot be summed into a national Saudi pipeline.",
      "sourceLocator": "Release subheading, investment paragraph, deployment paragraph, and forward-looking statement.",
      "primarySource": {
        "sourceId": "SRC-0042",
        "title": "AMD and HUMAIN Form Strategic $10B Collaboration to Advance Global AI",
        "publisher": "AMD",
        "url": "https://www.amd.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-5-13-amd-and-humain-form-strategic--10b-collaboration-.html"
      },
      "supportingSources": []
    },
    {
      "id": "HPC-0007",
      "name": "Khazna Dammam campus",
      "sponsors": [
        "Khazna Data Centers"
      ],
      "country": "Saudi Arabia",
      "place": "Dammam",
      "announcementDate": "2025-12-09",
      "headlineMw": 200.0,
      "capacityDefinition": "unspecified_power_mw",
      "geographyAllocation": "allocated_to_city_and_land_parcel_without_coordinates",
      "status": "site_identified",
      "latestMilestoneDate": "2025-12-09",
      "latestMilestone": "Owner reported acquisition of 225,000 square metres of land for a Dammam site.",
      "targetServiceDate": "",
      "targetStatus": "no_public_service_date",
      "evidence": {
        "capacity": "not_public",
        "site": "established",
        "construction": "not_public",
        "power": "not_public",
        "energization": "not_public",
        "operation": "not_public"
      },
      "siteEvidence": "city_and_parcel_area_named",
      "siteControlEvidence": "owner_reported_land_acquired",
      "constructionEvidence": "",
      "powerEvidence": "",
      "coolingEvidence": "",
      "overlapRisk": "The project is part of Khazna's multi-country expansion and must not be added to the portfolio target; capacity measure is undefined.",
      "publicationNote": "Land control is a real milestone, but no construction, utility, connection, or energization evidence is public.",
      "sourceLocator": "Opening paragraph, country-head remit, and facility-description paragraphs.",
      "primarySource": {
        "sourceId": "SRC-0044",
        "title": "Khazna Advances Expansion Plans in Saudi Arabia",
        "publisher": "Khazna Data Centers",
        "url": "https://khaznadatacenters.com/press-release/khazna-data-centers-names-new-country-head-and-advances-expansion-plans-in-saudi-arabia-in-support-of-vision-2030/"
      },
      "supportingSources": [
        {
          "sourceId": "SRC-0045",
          "title": "Khazna to Add Over 1 GW Hyperscale Capacity Across Multiple Countries by 2030",
          "publisher": "Khazna Data Centers",
          "url": "https://khaznadatacenters.com/press-release/khazna-data-centers-to-add-over-1gw-hyperscale-capacity-across-multiple-countries-by-2030/"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}